Last week, the U.S. Treasury submitted to Congress the latest issue of the International Economic and Exchange Rate Policy Report, which stated that although the exchange rate of the renminbi is still significantly undervalued, the US government still has no intention to include China, the world's second largest economy. List of "exchange rate manipulators".
For the first time in the second term of the Obama administration, and for the ninth time in his term, China has refused to list China as an "exchange rate manipulating country". Chinese export companies that have been under pressure for the appreciation of the yuan seem to be relieved. "Without the hat of" exchange rate manipulation, "the international exchange pressure on the RMB exchange rate will be less at least." Ma Chengliang, general manager of Shenzhen Aowa Furniture Co., Ltd., said in an interview with China Trade News.
However, at the moment when major global economies such as Japan have started printing machines to promote the devaluation of their currencies, the RMB is under more realistic and direct pressure to appreciate.
International currency market shock
Recently, Japan has promised to double the amount of base currency in the next two years, reaching 270 trillion yen at the end of 2014. The industry believes that this is another crazy currency investment since Japan implemented the "natural monetary stimulus policy" in the fourth quarter of last year.
This move made Japan "shot" and became the target of warning in the US "International Economic and Exchange Rate Policy Report." The report states that the United States will pay close attention to the monetary policy of large-scale asset purchases adopted by the Japanese authorities to stimulate domestic economic demand, and Japan should not adopt a "competitive devaluation" of the yen against other countries.
Other advanced economies are also under pressure to further increase liquidity. In its latest monthly report, the European Central Bank reiterated its position to maintain loose monetary policy. In its latest monetary policy statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia said it would take interest rate cuts if necessary.
A new wave of world “quantitative easing” is coming, and the international currency market is turbulent. Since April, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has been continuously lower, and on April 12, it has approached the 100 yen mark. The accelerated depreciation of the Japanese yen has also caused the RMB to US dollar exchange rate to rise more than once. Last week, it broke the record twice and broke through the 6.25 mark on April 15. The RMB / USD exchange rate was 6.2454.
This can't help but make Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce puzzled. He said: "It may make sense to appreciate the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar when the US dollar is weak. Now the major western currencies, such as the Japanese yen and the euro, have all depreciated against the US dollar. This is a question worth thinking about. "
友 Li Youhuan, director of the Comprehensive Research and Development Center for Social Sciences of Guangdong Province, believes that the current exchange rate of the renminbi is based on the US dollar, and the exchange rate policy is not flexible enough. In the future, the national level should adopt more targeted policies. Differentiate and comprehensively consider the exchange rates of currencies of different countries, maintain exchange rate stability for countries outside the United States, reduce the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the RMB, and prevent the rise of the one-up-up "Deviation.
Chinese exports weaken
While the renminbi continues to "rise and fall", the confidence of foreign export enterprises has fallen to the bottom. Ma Chengliang said to reporters: "The yen is depreciating against the RMB and the RMB is still rising against the US dollar. This kind of left-to-right pinch makes us very unsure when discussing business with foreign merchants!"
Li Youhuan also said: "The appreciation of the renminbi has a great impact on the current export situation. Many export companies are struggling to survive, and they have had negative emotions due to the shrinking production and operation profits." This will directly affect the 113th China's progress on April 15th. Results of the Export Commodities Fair. "Affected by the appreciation of the RMB, the transaction situation will not be very good, and may be worse than the previous session." Li Youhuan predicts.
的 Statistics from the General Administration of Customs also confirm the fact that the strong RMB has frustrated foreign trade export companies. It is reported that in March this year, China's total import and export value reached 365.264 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. Among them, the export value was 18.21 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.0% year-on-year; the import value was 18.183 billion US dollars, an increase of 14.1% year-on-year. The unexpected increase in imports caused a trade deficit of US $ 880 million in March, changing the trade surplus that has been maintained since February 2012. Moreover, Bai Ming believes that the possibility of recurring a single-month deficit cannot be ruled out, because the March trade deficit has heralded a weakening of exports and the uncertainty it faces; meanwhile, export data for the first two months have "moisture."
The reporter learned that the market generally believes that there was a falsely high component in the export growth rate in March, especially that the trade volume between the Mainland and Hong Kong increased by 71.2% that month. The export data has been dramatically enlarged. Because from November last year, the spot exchange rate of RMB in the Hong Kong market has been higher than that in the Mainland market, which means that the equivalent amount of US dollars can be exchanged for more RMB in the Mainland market than in the Hong Kong market. Free flow under the project provides a channel for arbitrage of trade in goods using funds.
Li Youhuan, a research expert on hot money that monitors cross-border capital flows for a long time, also said that there is a certain possibility for this inference.