The latest issue of the 2013 "Economic Blue Book Spring Issue" states that the recovery of the world economy in 2013 will gradually weaken from a weak position, and China's import and export trade is expected to grow by 10% to 15%.
4On April 26, 2013, the "2013 Economic Blue Book Spring Issue" press conference co-sponsored by the Economics Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Science Literature Publishing House was held in Beijing. The experts at the meeting conducted an immediate analysis of the current macroeconomic situation, looked forward to the development trend of China's economy in 2013, and officially released the 2013 Economic Blue Book Spring Issue "China's Economic Prospect Analysis-2013 Spring Report".
The Blue Book points out that in 2012, the global economic downturn experienced a differentiation of growth rates. The US economy has shown some resilience, and after a brief downturn, the European debt crisis, and the impact of the "fiscal cliff", it has maintained a recovery trend. The European economy has been declining steadily and has fallen into recession as a whole. The Japanese economy stalled again after a brief recovery. Emerging market economies have also experienced turbulence and decline. Since the beginning of 2013, inflation in major global economies has been generally stable and has declined slightly. Countries are generally in the post-crisis adjustment period, the economic growth momentum is insufficient, and the price level is still in a downward trend. At present, the prices of international commodities have continued to decline, and it is expected that the next 1 to 2 quarters will show a mild state. Considering that the weak recovery of the global economy will tend to stabilize and moderate in the second half of the year, global prices may stop falling in the second half of the year and gradually pick up. Overall, the global economic development environment will improve in 2013, and the weak growth will turn into a moderate recovery.
In 2013, China's economic growth will be faster than in 2012, and import demand will increase, but it will also not reach the level of high growth in the past. As China accelerates the adjustment of its economic structure and changes in its economic development model, China's economy will be driven more by domestic demand, and the degree of dependence on foreign trade may be further reduced.
Taking all factors into consideration, it is estimated that the total value of China's imports and exports in 2013 will reach approximately US $ 4.315 trillion, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year. Among them, the total exports were about 2.295 trillion US dollars, up 12%; the total imports were about 2.020 trillion US dollars, up 11%; the trade surplus was about 275 billion US dollars, still in a balanced range.